. . . . It would be interesting to ponder the regret rate in the cohort referenced in this publication from JAMA in June 2023. titled:
‘Transgender Identity and Suicide Attempts and Mortality in Denmark’
Conclusions and Relevance:
In this Danish population-based, retrospective cohort study, results suggest that transgender individuals had significantly higher rates of suicide attempt, suicide mortality, suicide-unrelated mortality, and all-cause mortality compared with the non-transgender population.
"Dr Chambry also defended hormone treatment as “partially reversible” and claimed the treatment regret rate was “very low, around 1-3 per cent”."
Doesn't that 1-3 per cent come from something called the Bustos study? Jesse Singal analyzed it, I believe, and found that numbers were mistakenly doubled in the study leading to lower regret rates by around half.
The Bustos et al. (2021) meta-analysis, often cited for the ~1% regret rate, contained a key error: one of its largest source studies misstated the sample size—they reported it as 4,863 instead of the correct 2,627. This inflated the denominator, which in turn halved the actual calculated regret rate
In other words, the error made regret seem lower than it truly was. So, yes, the regret rate was understated by approximately half because of the inflated sample size.
As the Reddit comment noted:
“They literally misstated the sample size of their largest study … completely inflating the number.”
That means when someone cites a 1–3% regret rate, they are likely relying on a figure that’s artificially low, due to this methodological mistake.
✅ Bottom line:
The error didn't overestimate regret; it underestimated it—making the true rate potentially closer to 2–6%.
There are many possible issues with low regret claims.
Firstly, regret is likely to increase over time. Try 5 years, 10 years, 20 years etc.
It's likely that many don't report it to their clinician, someone they might be very angry at.
Embarrassment. They may be ashamed and not go public about it. They might fear being ostracised or ridiculed, or might be victims of cancel culture. Is desisting counted as detransitioning? How many regret it and have gone too far to detransition?
How you assess regret in someone who does not they are missing?
When I was a teenager, many 12 year old years smoked. How many of these quit smoking? How many regretted taking up smoking, within a few years? Not having regret does not mean they were not harmed.
. . . . It would be interesting to ponder the regret rate in the cohort referenced in this publication from JAMA in June 2023. titled:
‘Transgender Identity and Suicide Attempts and Mortality in Denmark’
Conclusions and Relevance:
In this Danish population-based, retrospective cohort study, results suggest that transgender individuals had significantly higher rates of suicide attempt, suicide mortality, suicide-unrelated mortality, and all-cause mortality compared with the non-transgender population.
"Dr Chambry also defended hormone treatment as “partially reversible” and claimed the treatment regret rate was “very low, around 1-3 per cent”."
Doesn't that 1-3 per cent come from something called the Bustos study? Jesse Singal analyzed it, I believe, and found that numbers were mistakenly doubled in the study leading to lower regret rates by around half.
The Bustos et al. (2021) meta-analysis, often cited for the ~1% regret rate, contained a key error: one of its largest source studies misstated the sample size—they reported it as 4,863 instead of the correct 2,627. This inflated the denominator, which in turn halved the actual calculated regret rate
In other words, the error made regret seem lower than it truly was. So, yes, the regret rate was understated by approximately half because of the inflated sample size.
As the Reddit comment noted:
“They literally misstated the sample size of their largest study … completely inflating the number.”
That means when someone cites a 1–3% regret rate, they are likely relying on a figure that’s artificially low, due to this methodological mistake.
✅ Bottom line:
The error didn't overestimate regret; it underestimated it—making the true rate potentially closer to 2–6%.
The Dutch long-term regret study is commonly cited to prove a sub-1% regret rate, without stating that loss to follow up was something like 30%.
and presumably the lost to follow up group would contain most of the regret group.
Yes. In a 2021 survey of detransitioners the majority had not told their former clinicians that they had detransitioned.
I reference a study on Detransition:
Only a small percentage of detransitioners (24.0%) informed the clinicians and clinics that facilitated their
A high "lost to study" rate is a major red flag.
There are many possible issues with low regret claims.
Firstly, regret is likely to increase over time. Try 5 years, 10 years, 20 years etc.
It's likely that many don't report it to their clinician, someone they might be very angry at.
Embarrassment. They may be ashamed and not go public about it. They might fear being ostracised or ridiculed, or might be victims of cancel culture. Is desisting counted as detransitioning? How many regret it and have gone too far to detransition?
How you assess regret in someone who does not they are missing?
When I was a teenager, many 12 year old years smoked. How many of these quit smoking? How many regretted taking up smoking, within a few years? Not having regret does not mean they were not harmed.
There are other issues.